Opinion polling for the 2009 Portuguese local elections

In the run up to the 2009 Portuguese local elections, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in several municipalities across Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous local elections, held on 9 October 2005, to the day the next elections were held, on 11 October 2009.

Polling

Alcobaça

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD PS CDU BE CDS IND O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 44.9
4 		20.9
2 		15.3
1 		2.6
0 		5.2
0 		6.7
0 		4.4 24.0
IPOM 24–25 Sep 2009 596 42.8 21.4 16.0 6.6 2.2 7.6 3.4 21.4
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 55.1
5 		17.1
1 		16.0
1 		3.4
0 		2.8
0 		— 5.6 38.0

Aveiro

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD
CDS 		PS CDU BE O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 53.8
6 		33.1
3 		3.7
0 		5.1
0 		4.4 20.7
Intercampus 11 Oct 2009 ? 53.2–
58.8 		29.8–
35.4 		1.7–
4.3 		3.4–
6.0 		– 23.4
Gemeo/IPAM 24–27 Jun 2009 500 55 27 2 8 8 28
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 47.5
5 		39.3
4 		4.4
0 		3.5
0 		5.2 8.2

Barcelos

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD PS CDS BE CDU O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 43.4
5 		44.5
6 		4.7
0 		1.8
0 		1.5
0 		4.2
0 		1.1
IPOM 1–3 Oct 2009 789 47.0 36.5 4.1 7.6 3.0 1.8 10.5
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 47.2
5 		41.8
4 		2.9
0 		1.9
0 		1.4
0 		4.9
0 		5.4

Braga

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PS PSD
CDS
PPM 		CDU BE O/U Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 44.7
6 		42.0
5 		6.3
0 		4.0
0 		2.9
0 		2.7
Intercampus 11 Oct 2009 ? 45.2–
50.8 		38.0–
43.6 		3.4–
7.0 		2.3–
4.9 		– 7.2
IPOM 5–6 Oct 2009 794 30.0 31.5 4.2 3.1 20.1 1.5
Eurosondagem 1–2 Oct 2009 530 46.9 36.9 6.9 6.0 3.3 10.0
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 44.5
6 		38.9
5 		7.1
0 		4.4
0 		5.2
0 		5.6

Faro

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PS PSD
CDS
MPT
PPM 		CDU BE IND O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 42.3
4 		42.7
5 		5.3
0 		3.0
0 		4.1
0 		2.7 0.4
Intercampus 11 Oct 2009 ? 38.0–
43.6 		41.0–
46.6 		3.6–
6.2 		1.9–
4.5 		2.8–
5.4 		– 3.0
Eurosondagem 6 Oct 2009 503 37.0 40.5 6.1 4.8 8.0 3.6 3.5
Intercampus 3–6 Oct 2009 600 38.5 36.2 7.9 6.7 6.7 4.0 2.3
Aximage 2–4 Oct 2009 500 39.1 41.1 6.1 2.6 4.9 2.2 2.0
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 41.1
4 		39.8
3 		8.9
0 		4.6
0 		— 5.6
0 		1.3

Horta

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PS PSD CDU CDS BE O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 45.2
4 		40.6
3 		9.2
0 		1.5
0 		1.2
0 		2.3 4.6
Eurosondagem 1–2 Oct 2009 505 40.0
3 		36.9
3 		15.3
1 		2.2
0 		3.6
0 		2.0 3.1
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 38.1
3 		30.0
2 		26.7
2 		2.0
0 		1.0
0 		2.0
0 		8.1

Leiria

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD PS CDS BE CDU O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 37.6
5 		44.9
5 		7.7
1 		3.4
0 		2.4
0 		4.1 7.3
Intercampus 11 Oct 2009 ? 41.1–
46.7 		36.5–
42.1 		7.0–
10.6 		1.4–
4.0 		0.6–
3.2 		– 4.6
IPOM 29–30 Sep 2009 596 49.9 40.7 4.0 2.6 1.1 1.8 9.2
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 42.6
4 		35.5
4 		9.3
1 		3.4
0 		2.5
0 		6.8 7.1

Lisbon

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD
CDS
MPT
PPM 		PS CDU BE O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 38.7
7 		44.0
9 		8.1
1 		4.6
0 		4.6
0 		5.3
UCP–CESOP 11 Oct 2009 ? 34.0–
38.0
6/7 		44.0–
48.0
8/9 		8.5–
10.5
1/2 		3.0–
5.0
0/1 		– 10.0
Eurosondagem 11 Oct 2009 ? 36.9–
41.1 		41.2–
45.4 		6.6–
8.8 		3.9–
6.1 		– 4.3
Intercampus 11 Oct 2009 ? 34.7–
40.3 		42.8–
48.4 		7.1–
10.7 		3.0–
5.6 		– 8.1
Aximage 6–8 Oct 2009 802 38.4 44.4 6.4 6.0 4.8 6.0
Marktest 5–7 Oct 2009 510 37.9 45.0 7.3 5.4 4.4 7.1
UCP–CESOP 3–6 Oct 2009 2,221 33 45 9 8 5 12
Eurosondagem 1–6 Oct 2009 1,022 36.9 41.9 8.4 8.0 4.8 5.0
Intercampus 28–30 Sep 2009 800 33.1 41.4 10.4 8.3 6.8 8.3
Marktest 31 Aug–2 Sep 2009 500 32.7 43.8 7.0 9.2 7.3 8.3
UCP–CESOP 28 Jun–4 Jul 2009 716 37 38 7 9 9 1
2007 by-election 15 Jul 2007 — 20.5
3 		29.5
6 		9.5
2 		6.8
1 		33.8
5 		9.0
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 48.4
9 		26.6
5 		11.4
2 		7.9
1 		5.7
0 		21.8

Loulé

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD PS BE CDU CDS O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 57.0
6 		32.6
3 		2.9
0 		1.9
0 		2.6
0 		2.9 24.4
IPOM 3–4 Oct 2009 695 60.5 16.2 0.9 0.4 0.4 21.6 9.2
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 51.4
4 		37.4
3 		2.7
0 		2.2
0 		1.6
0 		4.7 14.0

Lousada

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PS PSD
CDS 		CDU O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 57.7
4 		37.6
3 		2.9
0 		1.8 20.1
Gemeo/IPAM 7–8 Set 2009 400 65 28 1 6 37
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 61.4
5 		33.2
2 		3.0
0 		2.5 28.2

Mangualde

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD PS CDS CDU O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 35.9
3 		58.6
4 		2.4
0 		1.1
0 		2.0 22.7
Domp 24–30 Sep 2009 778 29.1
2 		57.3
5 		6.0
0 		5.4
0 		2.2 28.2
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 47.8
4 		44.8
3 		2.7
0 		1.4
0 		3.3
0 		3.0

Matosinhos

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PS PSD
CDS 		CDU BE NM O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 42.3
5 		17.1
2 		4.4
0 		2.7
0 		30.7
4 		2.8
0 		11.6
Intercampus 11 Oct 2009 ? 38.0–
43.6 		11.9–
16.5 		2.6–
5.2 		1.4–
4.0 		32.2–
37.8 		– 5.8
Aximage 4–6 Oct 2009 500 43.0 19.1 4.1 6.7 23.5 3.6 19.5
Eurosondagem 4–5 Oct 2009 534 35.3 21.1 6.0 4.7 30.2 2.7 5.1
UCP–CESOP 2–4 Oct 2009 1,257 39 22 4 4 27 4 12
IPOM 30 Jun–1 Jul 2009 796 32.6 20.9 4.5 5.2 34.5 2.2 1.9
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 47.3
6 		30.9
4 		8.6
1 		7.0
0 		— 6.2
0 		16.4

Oeiras

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size IM PSD
CDS
PPM 		PS CDU BE O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 41.5
5 		16.4
2 		25.8
3 		7.3
1 		3.9
4 		5.1
0 		15.7
Intercampus 11 Oct 2009 ? 40.0–
45.6 		14.2–
18.8 		23.3–
28.9 		5.0–
8.6 		2.4–
5.0 		– 16.7
UCP–CESOP 2–5 Oct 2009 1,307 42 16 25 7 6 4 17
Eurosondagem 29–30 Sep 2009 548 41.1 18.8 23.1 8.3 5.2 3.5 18.0
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 34.1
4 		32.1
4 		15.6
2 		7.9
1 		4.8
0 		5.5
0 		2.0

Oliveira do Bairro

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD CDS PS CDU O/U Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 53.6
4 		31.5
2 		10.7
1 		1.2
0 		3.0 22.1
Gemeo/IPAM 16–18 Sep 2009 400 23 11 2 1 63 12
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 44.2
4 		41.2
3 		9.0
0 		1.7
0 		3.9 3.0

Paços de Ferreira

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD PS CDS CDU O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 52.4
4 		41.6
3 		2.4
0 		1.9
0 		1.7 10.8
Gemeo/IPAM 14–15 Sep 2009 400 59 31 3 2 5 28
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 59.0
5 		29.7
2 		5.5
0 		2.8
0 		3.0 29.3

Paredes

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD PS CDS CDU BE O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 57.8
6 		26.5
3 		8.5
0 		3.3
0 		1.5
0 		2.4 31.3
Gemeo/IPAM 16–17 Sep 2009 400 59 21 13 2 2 3 38
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 50.9
5 		30.3
3 		9.2
1 		4.2
0 		1.9
0 		3.4 20.6

Penafiel

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD
CDS 		PS CDU BE O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 64.2
6 		29.7
3 		3.0
0 		1.3
0 		1.8 34.5
Gemeo/IPAM 8–9 Sep 2009 400 66 28 2 1 3 38
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 62.0
6 		30.1
3 		3.8
0 		1.4
0 		2.7 31.9

Porto

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD
CDS 		PS CDU BE O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 47.5
7 		34.7
5 		9.8
1 		5.0
0 		3.0
0 		12.8
UCP–CESOP 11 Oct 2009 ? 45.0–49.0
6/7 		33.0–37.0
5/6 		8.5–10.5
0/1 		4.0–6.0
0 		– 12.0
Eurosondagem 11 Oct 2009 ? 43.3–
47.1
6/7 		35.5–
39.9
5/6 		7.9–
10.1
0/1 		3.9–
5.7
0 		– 7.2–
7.8
Intercampus 11 Oct 2009 ? 44.9–
50.5 		31.3–
36.8 		7.8–
11.4 		3.3–
6.9 		– 13.6–
13.7
Marktest 2–7 Oct 2009 400 51.0 31.0 7.8 5.7 4.7 20.0
UCP–CESOP 2–5 Oct 2009 2,571 47 33 9 7 4 14
Aximage 2–4 Oct 2009 500 46.4 34.3 9.7 5.8 3.8 12.1
Eurosondagem 28–30 Sep 2009 736 48.0 33.3 9.4 5.8 3.5 14.7
Intercampus 28–30 Sep 2009 800 44.4 35.9 8.2 7.9 3.6 8.5
Marktest 3–6 Sep 2009 399 44.7 31.1 9.6 7.8 6.8 13.6
IPOM 16–19 Jun 2009 797 55.2 23.5 9.2 8.1 4.1 31.7
UCP–CESOP 8–9 Jun 2009 1,002 54 23 4 7 12 31
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 46.2
7 		36.1
5 		9.0
1 		4.2
0 		4.5
0 		10.1

Santa Cruz

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD PS CDU JPP O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 41.9
3 		13.0
3 		5.0
0 		32.0
3 		8.1
0 		9.9
Eurosondagem 2 Oct 2009 310 51.1 28.2 4.9 10.2 5.6 21.4
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 46.8
4 		40.4
3 		3.3
0 		— 9.6
0 		6.4

Santa Maria da Feira

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD PS CDS CDU BE O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 48.1
6 		40.6
5 		3.5
0 		2.5
0 		2.6
0 		2.7 7.5
GTriplo 15–16 Sep 2009 502 30.1 31.7 2.2 2.0 3.2 30.8 1.6
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 49.0
6 		39.5
5 		3.1
0 		2.6
0 		2.0
0 		3.8 9.5

Santarém

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD PS CDU BE CDS O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 64.2
7 		21.2
2 		5.7
0 		2.4
0 		3.6
0 		2.9 43.0
Intercampus 3–6 Oct 2009 600 53.2 27.2 8.6 4.2 4.4 2.4 26.0
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 41.4
4 		37.8
4 		12.2
1 		2.5
0 		2.3
0 		3.8 3.6

São João da Madeira

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD PS CDS CDU BE O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 56.0
5 		26.4
2 		7.2
0 		5.8
0 		2.7
0 		2.1 29.6
Domp 21–26 Sep 2009 604 66.7
6 		15.3
1 		7.4
0 		4.7
0 		3.3
0 		2.6 51.4
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 56.3
5 		19.8
1 		12.7
1 		5.0
0 		2.6
0 		3.6 36.5

Setúbal

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size CDU PSD PS BE CDS O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 38.8
5 		14.5
1 		29.8
3 		6.1
0 		5.8
0 		5.0
0 		9.0
Intercampus 11 Oct 2009 ? 40.3–
45.9 		11.8–
13.4 		23.1–
28.7 		4.3–
7.9 		5.1–
8.7 		– 17.2
Eurosondagem 28–29 Sep 2009 510 37.9 16.2 29.4 7.8 5.2 3.5 8.5
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 40.4
4 		25.4
3 		21.2
2 		5.2
0 		1.5
0 		6.3
0 		15.0

Trofa

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD PS CDS CDU O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 43.4
3 		46.2
4 		5.7
0 		2.4
0 		2.3 2.8
IPOM 28 Aug–1 Sep 2009 796 54.4 31.4 5.8 2.7 5.8 23.0
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 48.4
4 		37.1
3 		6.9
0 		3.6
0 		4.1
0 		11.3

Valongo

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD
CDS 		PS CDU BE IND O/U Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 34.3
4 		27.2
3 		4.6
0 		2.7
0 		22.9
2 		8.3
0 		7.1
IPOM 20–22 Jul 2009 799 26.2 10.3 1.8 1.5 9.4 50.8 15.9
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 44.2
5 		40.6
4 		6.6
0 		3.9
0 		— 4.7 3.6

Viana do Castelo

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PS PSD
CDS 		CDU BE O Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 50.2
4 		35.1
3 		6.6
0 		4.8
0 		3.3 15.1
Intercampus 11 Oct 2009 ? 49.8–
55.4 		30.4–
36.0 		5.2–
8.8 		3.5–
6.1 		– 19.4
Intercampus 3–6 Oct 2009 600 48.9 40.5 5.5 3.9 1.2 8.4
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 49.0
6 		35.6
3 		5.5
0 		3.1
0 		6.8
0 		13.4

Vila Nova de Gaia

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample size PSD
CDS 		PS CDU BE O/U Lead
2009 local election 11 Oct 2009 — 62.0
8 		25.3
3 		6.3
0 		3.2
0 		3.2
0 		36.7
IPOM 10–15 Jul 2009 800 62.1 20.5 8.7 5.2 3.6 41.6
2005 local election 9 Oct 2005 — 55.0
7 		28.0
3 		8.3
1 		3.8
0 		4.9
0 		27.0

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d Sum of the PSD and CDS separate results in 2005.
  2. ^ Sum of the PSD and CDS separate results in 2007.
  3. ^ In the 2005 elections, the PSD ran alone and CDS didn't present a candidacy.